momentum devandClaude Fable 5 70c9e3715b experiment-os: first-cohort registrations (5 experiments) (+test)
Plan 006 step 4. experiments/*.json for time_stop_10m_v1, probe_add_v1,
asym_exit_v1, rank_one_bullet_v1, pm1_v1 — bars verbatim from the plan table,
production population, fidelity floors {0.25, 3, 1} from the research doc. Also
hardened evaluate(): n==0 and any uncomputable bar metric -> INCONCLUSIVE (not a
false FAIL). Cohort registers + survives run->adjudicate end-to-end. 25 tests green.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-13 23:48:58 -04:00

Momentum

Event-sourced small-cap momentum day-trading system (Ross Cameron–style gap-and-go / opening-range breakout). It screens the day's top overnight gappers — the year-scale-validated population: $2–20, static open gap 10–35%, real volume, plus a volume-verified >150% squeeze exception — arms an opening-range-breakout trigger the moment the range forms, fires a bracket order on the live cross (regular session only), and manages the exit with a breakeven ratchet + trailing profit-lock ladder. Execution runs on an Alpaca paper account over the SIP consolidated feed; everything is recorded in a PostgreSQL append-only event store and replayable.

Alpaca SIP bars ─► research DBs (minute+daily) ─► screen gappers ─► ArmedTriggerBook
   (1-min, live)                                                          │ live price
                                                                          ▼ crosses trigger
   PostgreSQL event store  ◄──────────────────────  TradingExecutionService ─► Alpaca paper
   (append-only: signals, orders,                            │ bracket (entry+stop+target)
    fills, account, risk events)                            ▼
        ▲                                          LiveExitManager ─► trail stop ↑ / flatten
        └──────────── AlpacaPaperSync ◄──────── (account / positions / orders)

Every read path (dashboard, journal, monitoring board) is a pure projection over the event store, so any session can be replayed and audited.

Quick start (paper trading)

pip install -r requirements.txt
cp .env.example .env          # fill in ALPACA_API_KEY / ALPACA_SECRET_KEY + DATABASE_URL

# PostgreSQL is the datastore. Point DATABASE_URL at your instance, e.g.
#   DATABASE_URL=postgresql://user:pass@127.0.0.1:5432/momentum

python run_live_paper.py      # full loop (+ embedded dashboard)

No keys? python run_live_paper.py --once runs a single dry pass to verify wiring.

Deployment

Three supported shapes — Docker Compose is canonical (production runs the full stack self-contained on TrueNAS SCALE: postgres, loop, dashboard :8765, admin panel :8767, telegram bot, transcripts, nightly scheduler). Local systemd units remain the development shape; a Helm refresh is planned. See deploy/README.md for all three, including the behavior flags every deployment must set explicitly.

Commands

Everything is driven from the repo root. The ./momentum wrapper runs the inspection CLI in the project venv; the analysis scripts are plain python.

Live trading loop — run_live_paper.py

Command What it does
python run_live_paper.py Full live loop: screen → arm → fire → manage exits → EOD flatten, with the embedded dashboard.
python run_live_paper.py --no-dashboard Same, headless (how it runs in production / under a process manager).
python run_live_paper.py --once One pass then exit — smoke-test the wiring.
python run_live_paper.py --auto-approve Auto-arm brackets instead of waiting for dashboard approval (TRADING_AUTO_APPROVE=1).
python run_live_paper.py --symbols AAPL,SNDL Force specific symbols onto the watchlist.

Monitoring & inspection — ./momentum

Command What it does
./momentum watch Live monitoring board (armed triggers, ready signals, today's trades + day P&L, risk events). Refreshes every 3s.
./momentum watch --once Render one frame and exit (for logging / a cron snapshot).
./momentum journal Today's trade journal — every round-trip (ET times), broker-authoritative day P&L (matched · open), win rate. The 16:02 close capture.
./momentum doctor Health check across each pipeline stage (DB reachable, ingest fresh, broker sync, loop heartbeat).
./momentum inspect events Tail the raw event stream.
./momentum inspect bars SYM Today's minute bars for a symbol.
./momentum inspect discovery What the screener surfaced.
./momentum inspect criteria SYM Per-criterion pass/fail for one symbol (why it is/isn't a setup).
./momentum inspect signals Recent ready signals.

Analysis, backtest & tuning

Command What it does
python eod_replay.py [YYYY-MM-DD] End-of-day whole-market replay: run today's logic over every qualifying gapper (not just the ~20 watched live) + a perfect-hindsight line. Also grows the stored dataset for future verification. Defaults to today.
python backtest_cli.py Intraday backtests over stored sessions.
python sweep_exits.py Sweep managed-exit variants (trail / breakeven / profit-lock tiers), train/test split.
python sweep_filters.py Sweep entry-filter variants (gap / rvol / price / liquidity).
python diagnose_entries.py Entry-quality analysis — what the losers had in common.
python nightly_tune.py Self-tune params into data/learned_params.json (applied on next boot).
python research_cli.py Ad-hoc: session symbols, gapper scan, RSS news pull.
python milestone3_verify.py Schwab integration health walk-through.

Data ingestion

Command What it does
python fetch_minute_bars.py Ad-hoc minute-bar ingestion.
python backfill_history.py Backfill daily/minute history for the universe.

Scheduled jobs (cron wrappers)

The .sh wrappers set the venv + cwd so cron can call them directly:

2  16 * * 1-5  /path/momentum/journal.sh       # capture the close trade journal
5  16 * * 1-5  /path/momentum/eod_replay.sh     # whole-market replay (grows dataset)
30 17 * * 1-5  /path/momentum/nightly_tune.sh   # retune params for tomorrow

Tests

DATABASE_URL=postgresql://user:pass@host:5432/momentum python -m pytest
# ~365 tests: strategy, storage, triggers, execution (cooldown/re-entry/EOD
# flatten/naked-stop guards), exits, journal P&L, api, research.

Tests isolate via throwaway mem_* Postgres schemas; tests/conftest.py sweeps them at session end.

Configuration

All behavior is environment-driven — see .env.example for every key with the why. The knobs that matter most:

  • Entry population (year-scale validated 2026-07): TRADING_PRICE_MIN/MAX (2–20), TRADING_MIN_ENTRY_GAP_PCT (0.10, static open gap), TRIGGER_GAP_MAX (35 — the 35-150% band tested dead), TRIGGER_GAP_SQUEEZE_MIN/RVOL (150/5 — re-admits real squeezes), TRADING_MIN_DAY_VOLUME, TRADING_SESSION_ONLY (bars after-hours entries).
  • Sizing: TRADING_RISK_PER_TRADE_PCT (1%), TRADING_MAX_POSITION_PCT, TRADING_LIQUIDITY_MAX_VOLUME_PCT (size down thin names).
  • Exits: TRADING_EXIT_TRAIL_MODE=prior_low, TRADING_EXIT_TRAIL_AFTER_R, TRADING_EXIT_BREAKEVEN_R, TRADING_EXIT_PROFIT_TIERS.
  • Discipline: TRADING_BACKOUT_COOLDOWN_SECONDS, TRADING_BLOCK_REENTRY_AFTER_EXIT
    • TRADING_REENTRY_MIN_LOSS_PCT, TRADING_EOD_FLATTEN_TIME.
  • Safety: TRADING_MAX_DAILY_LOSS_PCT — set to 0.03 before real-money trading (it ships loosened for testing).

Database & performance

The single datastore is PostgreSQL (DATABASE_URL) — bars, events, research tables, everything (the DuckDB era is over; data/ holds only logs, transcripts, and boot-time state). The event store is one append-only events table that every projection reads.

Hot-path index. Projections overwhelmingly run WHERE event_type=? ORDER BY timestamp DESC LIMIT n (latest snapshot of a type). A composite index makes this an index seek regardless of how stale the type is — without it, looking up the latest of an idle type backward-scans the whole table (measured 373 ms → 0.018 ms on 235k rows). It's created automatically by storage/event_store.py:

CREATE INDEX idx_events_type_ts ON events (event_type, timestamp DESC);

Plugins / extensions. The big win here is the index above, not an extension. For ongoing tuning:

  • pg_stat_statements — enable (shared_preload_libraries, server restart) to see which queries actually cost time. Diagnostic, not a speedup itself.
  • pg_prewarm — warm the cache for the events table after a restart.
  • TimescaleDB — only worth it if the event/bar volume grows large (hypertables
    • time partitioning + compression). Not required at current scale, and must be installed on the server.

Maintenance is automated. The nightly job (scheduler service / systemd timer) prunes diagnostic events older than 14 days, rotates logs, refreshes the day's bars to SIP truth, and updates the float/dilution shadow caches. Autovacuum is tuned per-table; run ANALYZE manually only after bulk imports.

Repository map

run_live_paper.py     the orchestrator: screen → arm → fire → manage → EOD flatten
momentum_cli.py       the `momentum` CLI (watch / journal / doctor / inspect)
trading_execution.py  signal → sizing → approval → bracket order; risk discipline
runtime/              triggers (ArmedTriggerBook), exit_manager, flatten helper
strategy/             pure strategy engine: evaluation, structure, exits, backtest
storage/              event schema + store (PostgreSQL), projections
research/             research DBs, ingestion (bars, RSS, gappers), screeners
alpaca_paper/         Alpaca paper client, executor, account/order sync
api/ + dashboard_api.py   dashboard JSON API + static UI (:8765)
admin_api.py          admin panel (:8767): health, config overrides, profiles, restarts
youtube_claims/       trader-video transcript -> claim extraction pipeline
controlroom/          NiceGUI control room (disabled by owner preference)
deploy/               compose (canonical) / systemd (local) / helm (planned)
eod_replay.py         end-of-day whole-market replay
docs/history/         point-in-time plans from earlier eras — don't follow them
tests/                pytest suite (unit + integration)

Security

.env and all of data/ are git-ignored and never committed; token files are written 0600. The .env holds live broker / database / webhook credentials — keep it local. If any secret was ever committed to a repo's history, rotate it (re-issue Alpaca keys / re-run the Schwab OAuth flow).

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Event-sourced small-cap momentum (ORB gap-and-go) day-trading system — Alpaca paper, PostgreSQL event store
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