Claude 618950ce9c Add AI trade analysis (advisory): armed/weak verdict, post-mortems, EOD note
Extends the local-LLM layer from news to TRADES, reusing the proven enrichment
pattern (structured JSON, Postgres cache, off-hot-path scheduler, graceful
degradation). Advisory only — never gates a trade.

strategy/evaluation/trade_analysis.py: four analyses keyed by analysis_type —
  * armed      — does a loaded setup still make sense to pursue? (pursue/avoid/
                 monitor + confidence + concerns), weighing numbers + catalyst
  * weak       — why a too-soft setup failed and whether a thesis remains
  * postmortem — closed-trade lesson (uses r_multiple / exit_reason)
  * eod        — once-a-day session narrative
Schema-constrained decoding (ANALYSIS_SCHEMA), tolerant _parse, and a
context_hash so an unchanged board isn't re-sent to the GPU. run_* helpers
upsert into ai_trade_analysis_cache; trade_analysis_map / query_trade_analysis
read it back. NEVER raise.

Wiring:
- ai_trade_analysis_cache table (storage/pg_schema.sql)
- OllamaConfig.trade_analysis_{enabled,interval_seconds,batch_limit} + env
- run_live_paper step_analyze on the Scheduler, gated by ollama.enabled AND
  TRADE_ANALYSIS_ENABLED (ships OFF); reads the in-memory trigger book + day P&L
- query_trade_analysis projection; api snapshots() attaches the verdict to armed
  triggers + approval rows and exposes trade_analysis
- dashboard: per-name AI verdict chip (pursue=green/avoid=red/monitor=amber) +
  an "AI session note" panel
- .env.example documents the toggles

Tests: parse/enum/clamp, prompt builders, persistence + context_hash dedupe,
closed-trade + EOD paths, config from_env, and the dashboard projection. 230 pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01M5HTMkaadGDnAPtXe2hWwg
2026-06-29 22:00:03 +00:00

Momentum

Event-sourced small-cap momentum day-trading system (Ross Cameron–style gap-and-go / opening-range breakout). It screens the day's most-active gappers ($1–5, gapping ≥3% on ≥2× relative volume), arms an opening-range-breakout trigger the moment the range forms, fires a bracket order on the live cross, and manages the exit with a trailing stop + profit-lock ladder. Execution runs on an Alpaca paper account; everything is recorded in a PostgreSQL append-only event store and replayable.

Alpaca IEX bars ─► research DBs (minute+daily) ─► screen gappers ─► ArmedTriggerBook
   (1-min, live)                                                          │ live price
                                                                          ▼ crosses trigger
   PostgreSQL event store  ◄──────────────────────  TradingExecutionService ─► Alpaca paper
   (append-only: signals, orders,                            │ bracket (entry+stop+target)
    fills, account, risk events)                            ▼
        ▲                                          LiveExitManager ─► trail stop ↑ / flatten
        └──────────── AlpacaPaperSync ◄──────── (account / positions / orders)

Every read path (dashboard, journal, monitoring board) is a pure projection over the event store, so any session can be replayed and audited.

Quick start (paper trading)

pip install -r requirements.txt
cp .env.example .env          # fill in ALPACA_API_KEY / ALPACA_SECRET_KEY + DATABASE_URL

# PostgreSQL is the datastore. Point DATABASE_URL at your instance, e.g.
#   DATABASE_URL=postgresql://user:pass@127.0.0.1:5432/momentum

python run_live_paper.py      # full loop (+ embedded dashboard)

No keys? python run_live_paper.py --once runs a single dry pass to verify wiring.

Commands

Everything is driven from the repo root. The ./momentum wrapper runs the inspection CLI in the project venv; the analysis scripts are plain python.

Live trading loop — run_live_paper.py

Command What it does
python run_live_paper.py Full live loop: screen → arm → fire → manage exits → EOD flatten, with the embedded dashboard.
python run_live_paper.py --no-dashboard Same, headless (how it runs in production / under a process manager).
python run_live_paper.py --once One pass then exit — smoke-test the wiring.
python run_live_paper.py --auto-approve Auto-arm brackets instead of waiting for dashboard approval (TRADING_AUTO_APPROVE=1).
python run_live_paper.py --symbols AAPL,SNDL Force specific symbols onto the watchlist.

Monitoring & inspection — ./momentum

Command What it does
./momentum watch Live monitoring board (armed triggers, ready signals, today's trades + day P&L, risk events). Refreshes every 3s.
./momentum watch --once Render one frame and exit (for logging / a cron snapshot).
./momentum journal Today's trade journal — every round-trip (ET times), broker-authoritative day P&L (matched · open), win rate. The 16:02 close capture.
./momentum doctor Health check across each pipeline stage (DB reachable, ingest fresh, broker sync, loop heartbeat).
./momentum inspect events Tail the raw event stream.
./momentum inspect bars SYM Today's minute bars for a symbol.
./momentum inspect discovery What the screener surfaced.
./momentum inspect criteria SYM Per-criterion pass/fail for one symbol (why it is/isn't a setup).
./momentum inspect signals Recent ready signals.

Analysis, backtest & tuning

Command What it does
python eod_replay.py [YYYY-MM-DD] End-of-day whole-market replay: run today's logic over every qualifying gapper (not just the ~20 watched live) + a perfect-hindsight line. Also grows the stored dataset for future verification. Defaults to today.
python backtest_cli.py Intraday backtests over stored sessions.
python sweep_exits.py Sweep managed-exit variants (trail / breakeven / profit-lock tiers), train/test split.
python sweep_filters.py Sweep entry-filter variants (gap / rvol / price / liquidity).
python diagnose_entries.py Entry-quality analysis — what the losers had in common.
python nightly_tune.py Self-tune params into data/learned_params.json (applied on next boot).
python research_cli.py Ad-hoc: session symbols, gapper scan, RSS news pull.
python milestone3_verify.py Schwab integration health walk-through.

Data ingestion

Command What it does
python fetch_minute_bars.py Ad-hoc minute-bar ingestion.
python backfill_history.py Backfill daily/minute history for the universe.

Scheduled jobs (cron wrappers)

The .sh wrappers set the venv + cwd so cron can call them directly:

2  16 * * 1-5  /path/momentum/journal.sh       # capture the close trade journal
5  16 * * 1-5  /path/momentum/eod_replay.sh     # whole-market replay (grows dataset)
30 17 * * 1-5  /path/momentum/nightly_tune.sh   # retune params for tomorrow

Tests

DATABASE_URL=postgresql://user:pass@host:5432/momentum python -m pytest
# ~130 tests: strategy, storage, triggers, execution (cooldown/re-entry/EOD
# flatten/naked-stop guards), exits, journal P&L, schwab, api, research.

Tests isolate via throwaway mem_* Postgres schemas; tests/conftest.py sweeps them at session end.

Configuration

All behavior is environment-driven — see .env.example for every key with the why. The knobs that matter most:

  • Entry: WATCHER_PRICE_MIN/MAX (1–5), TRIGGER_GAP_MIN/MAX, TRIGGER_RVOL_MIN, TRIGGER_MIN_DOLLAR_VOL (absolute liquidity floor — skip thin spikes).
  • Sizing: TRADING_RISK_PER_TRADE_PCT (1%), TRADING_MAX_POSITION_PCT, TRADING_LIQUIDITY_MAX_VOLUME_PCT (size down thin names).
  • Exits: TRADING_EXIT_TRAIL_MODE=prior_low, TRADING_EXIT_TRAIL_AFTER_R, TRADING_EXIT_BREAKEVEN_R, TRADING_EXIT_PROFIT_TIERS.
  • Discipline: TRADING_BACKOUT_COOLDOWN_SECONDS, TRADING_BLOCK_REENTRY_AFTER_EXIT
    • TRADING_REENTRY_MIN_LOSS_PCT, TRADING_EOD_FLATTEN_TIME.
  • Safety: TRADING_MAX_DAILY_LOSS_PCT — set to 0.03 before real-money trading (it ships loosened for testing).

Database & performance

The single datastore is PostgreSQL (DATABASE_URL); research bars live in DuckDB under data/research/. The event store is one append-only events table that every projection reads.

Hot-path index. Projections overwhelmingly run WHERE event_type=? ORDER BY timestamp DESC LIMIT n (latest snapshot of a type). A composite index makes this an index seek regardless of how stale the type is — without it, looking up the latest of an idle type backward-scans the whole table (measured 373 ms → 0.018 ms on 235k rows). It's created automatically by storage/event_store.py:

CREATE INDEX idx_events_type_ts ON events (event_type, timestamp DESC);

Plugins / extensions. The big win here is the index above, not an extension. For ongoing tuning:

  • pg_stat_statements — enable (shared_preload_libraries, server restart) to see which queries actually cost time. Diagnostic, not a speedup itself.
  • pg_prewarm — warm the cache for the events table after a restart.
  • TimescaleDB — only worth it if the event/bar volume grows large (hypertables
    • time partitioning + compression). Not required at current scale, and must be installed on the server.

Maintenance. ~80% of events rows are high-volume diagnostics (criteria_evaluated, signal_blocked, module_tick). A retention/prune of old diagnostic events keeps the table small and every query fast. Run ANALYZE events after large ingests so the planner has fresh stats.

Repository map

run_live_paper.py     the orchestrator: screen → arm → fire → manage → EOD flatten
momentum_cli.py       the `momentum` CLI (watch / journal / doctor / inspect)
trading_execution.py  signal → sizing → approval → bracket order; risk discipline
runtime/              triggers (ArmedTriggerBook), exit_manager, flatten helper
strategy/             pure strategy engine: evaluation, structure, exits, backtest
storage/              event schema + store (PostgreSQL), projections
research/             research DBs, ingestion (bars, RSS, gappers), screeners
alpaca_paper/         Alpaca paper client, executor, account/order sync
schwab/               Schwab OAuth, market data, positions/orders, health
api/ + dashboard_api.py   dashboard JSON API + static UI
eod_replay.py         end-of-day whole-market replay
tests/                pytest suite (unit + integration)

Security

.env and all of data/ (DBs, data/schwab_tokens.json) are git-ignored and never committed; token files are written 0600. The .env holds live broker / database / webhook credentials — keep it local. If any secret was ever committed to a repo's history, rotate it (re-issue Alpaca keys / re-run the Schwab OAuth flow).

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Event-sourced small-cap momentum (ORB gap-and-go) day-trading system — Alpaca paper, PostgreSQL event store
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