Diagnosis (why-strategy-loses-naked-stop): the net loss is ONE naked-stop blowup
— NIVF ran to -23% with no stop that fired (-$3,737 = ~111% of the loss); ex-NIVF
the book is +$380. And the exit manager SKIPS any position without a usable stop
(line ~160), so a naked position gets zero exit management and runs to EOD.
New catastrophe stop runs FIRST and unconditionally on every held position,
before the bars fetch and before that no-stop skip: market-exit (via the robust
cancel-legs-then-close path) when price is >= catastrophe_pct below entry (def
10%, TRADING_CATASTROPHE_STOP_PCT) OR >= catastrophe_risk_mult x the intended 1R
underwater when a stop is known (def 1.5x). Independent of the broker bracket, so
a missing/failed stop can't run to -23% again. Long-only; in-profit and bad-price
are no-ops; 0 disables.
Validated: would have CAUGHT NIVF at -10% (~-$1.6k vs -$3.7k), leaves normal -1R
stops (BTBT -4.2%) alone. Pure `catastrophe_triggered` + manage() wiring +
`_is_active`/describe updated. Tests cover pct arm, risk arm, in-profit, disabled.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
