H3 (enter the pm-high break at 9:30 instead of the ORB) FAILED its
pre-registered bar on the year replay: paired delta -0.069R (n=689) —
entering earlier on the same names does not pay; the 5-minute wait stays.
The decomposition found the real signal: ORB fires where RTH price also
reclaimed the premarket high ran +0.316R (n=689) vs -0.298R (n=477) where
it never did — 100th percentile of a 2000-draw random-gate null at the
same keep-rate (null p99 +0.127), sign-consistent 14/14 months. First
lever of 15 to survive both checks in-sample.
Because the split was found in this dataset, it counts for nothing until
fresh fires confirm: new 'pmhigh_gate' intervention kind (fail-open on a
missing premarket_structure row, RTH-only reclaim check at/before the
entry bar) + registered spec with expR_delta >= 0.05 at n >= 200 forward
bar. Cohort self-registers on the next nightly experiments run.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
