The live exit ran FOUR independent stop ratchets at once: a +5% breakeven
inherited silently from the env default, a 0.25R step-trail, a prior-low
trail, and profit-lock tiers. Stacked, they pinned the stop at or just
above entry within the first minute of any real move, so winners were
capped near +1R while losers still ran to the full stop.
Measured over 62 live Tradier + 172 Alpaca paper round trips:
- trades whose stock ran >=20% after entry (avg +63.7%) kept 9.3% of it
- median hold 10 min for winners vs 19 min for losers -- inverted
- PCLA 2026-09-11: entered 12.8233, stopped 12.82, a 0.03% stop
breakeven_at_pct was the only exit lever in ExitConfig that defaulted ON
from the env (0.05) while its dataclass default and every sibling lever
defaulted to off, so the live stack ran it without ever setting it. Turn
the env default off so "not configured" means "not applied".
Replayed through simulate_exit -- same entries, same initial stops, only
the management varying -- with each stack split 70/30 by date. A 10%
trail running from entry looked best in-sample and went negative out-of-
sample; what survives is a trail armed only after +1R. The 8-20% range
all beat the old config in all four train/test cells (mean R 0.20-0.25 vs
0.125), so the live value of 12% is a plateau pick rather than a fitted
one.
Live config_overrides updated separately (market closed, no open
positions); this commit is the code default and the regression guard.
Risk per trade is unchanged and both safety backstops -- the -10%
catastrophe exit and naked-stop enforcement -- are untouched.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01A2LepdJfPCfK5Q8uznjFBM
