-- Experiment OS schema (plan 006) — pre-registered, auto-adjudicated
-- counterfactual experiments over logged fires.
--
-- Applied by research/experiments/registry.apply_schema on first run (same
-- idiom as pg_schema.sql; also handed to the owner to run manually if preferred).
-- Idempotent: safe to run repeatedly (CREATE ... IF NOT EXISTS throughout).

-- An experiment is a pre-registered, immutable contract. Rows are never
-- updated after registration except status/verdict fields.
CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS experiments (
    id            TEXT PRIMARY KEY,          -- slug, e.g. 'time_stop_10m_v1'
    registered_at TIMESTAMP NOT NULL,
    hypothesis    TEXT NOT NULL,             -- one sentence, human-readable
    population    JSONB NOT NULL,            -- PopulationConfig dump + extra filters
    intervention  JSONB NOT NULL,            -- typed params, e.g. {"kind":"time_stop","minutes":10,"confirm":"new_high_or_0.5R"}
    bars          JSONB NOT NULL,            -- pre-registered pass/fail criteria, e.g. {"expR_delta_min":0.05,"min_n":300,"p_max":0.05}
    futility      JSONB,                     -- early-kill rule, e.g. {"min_n":500,"expR_delta_max":-0.02}
    fidelity      JSONB NOT NULL,            -- slippage floors: {"atr_frac":0.25,"spread_mult":3,"adverse_ticks":1}
    status        TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT 'running',  -- running|passed|failed|inconclusive|killed
    verdict_at    TIMESTAMP,
    verdict_note  TEXT
);

-- One row per (experiment, replayed fire): the counterfactual outcome.
CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS experiment_runs (
    experiment_id TEXT NOT NULL REFERENCES experiments(id),
    fire_id       TEXT NOT NULL,             -- order_id / receipt correlation id
    symbol        TEXT NOT NULL,
    session_date  DATE NOT NULL,
    baseline_r    DOUBLE PRECISION,          -- what actually happened (R units)
    variant_r     DOUBLE PRECISION,          -- counterfactual outcome (R units)
    detail        JSONB,                     -- entry/exit stamps, fills, floor hits
    computed_at   TIMESTAMP NOT NULL,
    PRIMARY KEY (experiment_id, fire_id)
);
CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_exp_runs_exp_date ON experiment_runs (experiment_id, session_date);

-- Verdict history (append-only; the dashboard ledger reads this).
CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS experiment_verdicts (
    experiment_id TEXT NOT NULL REFERENCES experiments(id),
    as_of         TIMESTAMP NOT NULL,
    n             INTEGER NOT NULL,
    metrics       JSONB NOT NULL,            -- observed values vs each bar
    verdict       TEXT NOT NULL,             -- PASS|FAIL|INCONCLUSIVE|KILLED
    PRIMARY KEY (experiment_id, as_of)
);