# Judge v2 paper trial: what it has to show (pre-registered 2026-10-01, before any counted trade)

The v2 model passed its pre-registered out-of-sample SIMULATION test (data/ticksim/PREREG_v2.md: regular-hours
top 20%, +1.11%/trade after spread, day-block lo +0.54%, n=332). The paper trial's job is not to re-prove that edge.
At this sample size it cannot: the backtest is fat-tailed, with median trade about -0.1% and the top 5 trades about
40% of R. Its job is to show that REAL execution matches the simulation, so that the simulated edge can be trusted to
transfer.

Counted trades: completed paper round trips from 2026-10-02 on, the first session with the software stop and the
replaced-stop fix (8dc97a5, f3c8be1). 2026-09-29 to 2026-10-01 were shakedown days and are not counted.
Measured per trade by judge.review: paper R vs the simulator's R from the same fill on the same recorded ticks.

Checkpoint at 60 counted trades:
  PRIMARY (execution parity): mean(paper R - sim R) >= -0.15R, with the bootstrap 90% CI upper bound >= 0. A gap
  explained by a single bug that has since been fixed is re-measured on later trades.
  Reported: fill rate (unfilled orders and the sim R they would have made), entry slippage, exit-reason mismatches,
  paper P&L and mean R (for information only; n=60 cannot separate this edge from zero).

Decision:
  parity holds: continue paper trading to 150 counted trades for a performance read (mean return > 0 required).
    Only after that is a small real-money pilot considered, and only with the owner's go-ahead.
  parity fails: find and fix the execution gap before anything else. The backtest edge is irrelevant until the fills
    match.