Day-22 forensic (BIYA session): 6 entry submissions, 0 fills — IREX missed
+1.7R, IRE +1.65R by one cent. Two root causes fixed:
1. Slow-path limit rested AT the trigger while price ran 2% past it, and
retries reused the same stale price. Marketable model now prices from
max(trigger, live last) via price_provider; the anti-chase extension
gate gets the live ref too (was an entry_ref==trigger no-op on this
path). TRADING_ENTRY_FILL_MODEL flipped to marketable.
2. Fast trigger path armed nothing all day: legacy rvol (cum-so-far /
full-day MEAN) is ~0.1-0.3 minutes after the open for a normal heavy
name and its mean is poisoned by reverse-split/prior-squeeze days
(BIYA legacy 1.27 vs real activity 481x median). New rvol_tod =
cum / (MEDIAN(20d) * elapsed-session fraction) drives arm eligibility
and the scanner keep-filter; legacy rvol untouched for validated
boundaries (gap-squeeze rvol>=5).
Also: stagnation time-stop (TRADING_EXIT_STAGNATION_MIN/_R, default OFF)
in simulate_exit + manage_live with sweep_exits.py variants for
validation before any live enable.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
For verifying the profit-lock checkpoints out-of-sample against the current
trail (lock_off = trailLow_a1). In-sample, lock_mid matches lock_off on
expectancy (+0.264 vs +0.262R) with a higher win rate (61% vs 57%).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Replace the static -1R/+2R bracket with active, parameterised exit management
shared by the backtest and live (strategy/exits.py): move to breakeven, trail
under prior-bar lows or by %, scale out, or first-red exit.
Swept all variants over 187 sessions with a held-out train/test split
(sweep_exits.py), then an adversarial 3-judge workflow picked the robust winner
OUT-OF-SAMPLE: trailLow_a1 (trail under the prior bar's low after +1R) — test
avgR 0.128 vs the old static_2R 0.067 (~1.9x), win 49% vs 38%. The naive
in-sample winner (trailPct10) was correctly rejected as overfit
(train 0.684 -> test 0.085).
- strategy/exits.py: ExitConfig + simulate_exit (backtest) + manage_live (live)
- strategy/backtest/engine.py: simulate the managed exit on entry; Trade.entry_index
- runtime/exit_manager.py: live manager — ratchets the broker stop UP via
REPLACE/PATCH (never cancel = never naked), scales out, first-red exit
- alpaca_paper/client.py: replace_order (PATCH) + partial close_position
- run_live_paper.py: 'exits' step (12s); TRIGGER_MAX_ARMED 6 -> 10
- tests: exits sim/live + manager ratchet-never-cancel
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
