On 2026-10-02 the live bot bought 7 TNON at 4.62 and the Tradier sell-stop filled at
4.30 forty-nine seconds later, before a position record existed, so no position_closed
event was written and the 80-trade scorecard silently dropped a -1R loser. The daily
equity-vs-P&L gap ($2.31 that day, cents everywhere else) is what exposed it.
load_trades now merges the journal with a cross-check of the broker's filled orders
(account_orders_updated snapshots, one row per broker order id). For any session day and
symbol with a filled buy and sell but no journaled close, reconstruct_missing synthesises
the trade from the fills: fill VWAPs for entry/exit, the sell-stop's stop price for R.
Such trades are labelled "[broker fill; journal missed]" and the daily report alerts on a
same-day miss. The paper side of the exit A/B skips the check: that store's order
snapshots run to 2.2 GB over the window and its Alpaca journal is reconciled by
alpaca_paper/sync.
Corrected test state: 16/80, mean R -0.08, realized +$0.91 (was 15/80, -0.02, +$3.15).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LXxioW7HA18AY1gqnzA2HN
Pre-registers the real-money test that starts 2026-09-24, the first session
without commission drag. PASS needs at least 80 round trips with a positive
mean R and positive P&L. FAIL is any session the equity floor halts. Changing
any strategy setting in live_test_freeze.json restarts the count, and the
scorecard reports that drift.
The settings were frozen, not tuned, because a study of 239 real fills
re-simulated under the current exit found nothing worth changing:
- Capping how far above the trigger an entry may fill lost R at every cap
from 0.25% to 10%, with either skip or resting-limit handling. Fills more
than 5% above the trigger were the best bucket (+0.66R).
- No break-time factor (spread, price, VWAP distance, stop width, L1
bid/ask size, premarket range) kept its sign across both date halves and
both accounts.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
