2 Commits
Author SHA1 Message Date
momentum devandClaude Fable 5 5bf089cdcc research: orderflow H1/H2/H4 verdicts — all refuted in substance; H2's formal PASS is a bar artifact
H2 exposed an adjudicator gap: on a -0.21R/fire baseline any keep-or-zero
gate zeroing ~44% of fires clears +0.05 mechanically; its own pre-registered
strata check inverts (choppy beats persistent within both gap buckets =
Simpson's). Queued: random-gate null for keep-or-zero bars. H3 accruing as
designed (n=29, skip-on-no-coverage working).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-17 19:24:47 -05:00
momentum devandClaude Fable 5 cdb138c87d research: order-flow shelf distillation — 5 pre-registered-ready entry-conversion hypotheses
9 sources (Hasbrouck, Bouchaud x2, Cartea, Dalton, Bellafiore, Neill, CKS,
Cetin-Danilova) read by parallel agents + adversarial synthesis, constrained
to computable data (1-min SIP bars, 15s quotes) and fenced from the 8 refuted
levers. Companion to regime_notes.md. H1 (trigger-erasure fast invalidation,
5-book convergence) is the lead candidate.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-17 18:07:21 -05:00